IDU UPDATE - 13 February 2007
1. Next IDU Executive: Dubrovnik (Croatia) 25 – 27 April 2007
2. Successful IDU Young Leaders Forum in Ottawa
3. New team in place in Austria
4. New Republican Leadership
5. Change of the Guard in Bavaria
6. Serbia – majority for pro-European parties
7. France – Sarkozy in the lead as Royal goes left
8. Elections approaching in Estonia and Finland
9. Putin – flexing muscles in Munich
10. Taiwan: KMT-leader resigns
11. New IDU website
Dear colleague,
1. Next IDU Executive: Dubrovnik (Croatia) 25 – 27 April 2007
The venue and dates for the Spring meeting of the IDU Executive Committee are now confirmed: The meeting will be hosted by Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader and his Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in the magnificent and historic city of Dubrovnik 26 and 27 April. In addition to IDU-matters the Executive and IDU’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs will focus on regional challenges.
Further details will be made available to member parties and posted in the Members Only section of the IDU website shortly, but participants should plan for arrival on the 25th and may plan for departure on the 27th.
2. Successful IDU Young Leaders Forum in Ottawa
The International Democrat Union held its 7th Young Leaders forum in Ottawa 1 – 4 February, warmly hosted by the Conservative Party of Canada in Ottawa’s sub-zero temperatures during this city’s traditional Winterlude festival. 28 IDU parties, and parties that are close to the IDU, were represented at this high level forum of emerging young leaders from all corners of the world.
The more than 60 delegates heard briefings and had in-depth discussions with a number of Canadian Cabinet Ministers, as well as discussing key challenges for the centre-right. They also reviewed recent elections and had opportunities to exchange notes and ideas on campaign techniques, polling and communication
3. New team in place in Austria
Following the Austrian parliamentary elections of October 2006 and subsequent coalition negotiations, the new Austrian “grand coalition” of the Social Democrats and IDU member Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) took office in January.
The Social Democratic Party as the larger party, albeit marginally, claimed the post as Federal Chancellor. Former Federal Chancellor and ÖVP Party Leader Wolfgang Schüssel is now Parliamentary Group Leader in the Austrian National Council. Wilhelm Molterer, Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance of the new government, is the acting Party Leader. Ursula Plassnik continues as Minister of Foreign Affairs. Former Secretary General Reinhold Lopatka has been appointed State Secretary for Sport. New Secretary General of the Austrian People’s Party is Hannes Missethon MP.
4. New Republican Leadership
The Republican National Committee’s new leadership is now in place. US Senator Mel Martinez (Florida), a Cuban-born politician elected to the US Senate in 2004 and a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Bush administration, is the new General chairman of the RNC. In January Mike Duncan was confirmed as RNC Chairman in charge of day-to-day operations. Prior to his appointment as RNC Chairman Mike Duncan served as General Counsel and Treasurer of the Republican Party. For further information about the new RNC leadership, see http://www.gop.com/About/
5. Change of the Guard in Bavaria
As many IDU-colleagues will know, Bavaria’s CSU is one of the most successful centre-right parties in any democracy in the world, having been elected and re-elected to government for half a century. In the state’s elections of 2003 the CSU got more than 60 pct of the votes and 2/3 majority of seats in the Bavarian Parliament – the first 2/3 majority in any state parliament in Germany ever!
It was therefore quite a milestone when IDU Vice Chairman Edmund Stoiber, Minister-President of Bavaria (Germany) for almost 14 years and Party Leader since 1999, in January announced that he would vacate his position as Premier on Sept. 30, 2007 and that he also would not run for re-election to Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU) party leadership.
The State’s Interior Minister Günther Beckstein is expected to take over as Premier of Bavaria until next year's election. Frontrunners in the party leadership elections at the September 28 and 29 Party Convention are the Bavarian Economics Minister, Erwin Huber, and Agriculture Minister in Germany’s federal government, Horst Seehofer.
6. Serbia – majority for pro-European parties
Serbia held national elections 21 January, and the results were in many ways positive. Although the extreme nationalists in Serbia’s Radical Party – led by the war-crime indicted Vojislav Seselj – retained their position as the largest party, they actually received one parliamentary seat less than before.
The new Serbian Parliament has a clear majority of pro-European parties: President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS) made the largest gains. However, IDU member Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) – led by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica – together with coalition partner G-17 Plus have more seats in the new Parliament than the DS, thereby giving DSS a certain claim to the PM’s office. The government negotiations are expected to be tough and may last for months.
7. France – Sarkozy in the lead as Royal goes left
In France the campaigns are gaining momentum in the run-up to the Presidential elections to be held 22 April, with a presumed second round 6 May. After the nomination in January of the UMP Party Leader, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, as the centre-right candidate, he has held a consistent and increasing lead over the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in the opinion polls.
In an attempt to recapture momentum, after having put off for months the task of presenting a manifesto, Royal has now come forward with a 100 points list of mostly old and some new Socialist proposals in a clear turn to the left. As BBC’s Hugh Schofield put it: “an unmistakeably left-wing document, even by French standards, and certainly a million miles from anything under consideration in Britain or most other European countries for that matter.”
It remains to be seen whether this will get Royal’s campaign back on track – for sure the political frontlines become a lot clearer with the Socialist candidate so clearly taking her campaign to the left.
8. Elections approaching in Estonia and Finland
Estonia is rapidly moving towards national elections 4 March, with the new unified IDU-members Pro Patria and Res Publica Union fighting for a comeback for former Estonian Prime Minister Mart Laar – the father of Estonia’s economic miracle. As expected this is an uphill battle: Three weeks before the election incumbent Prime Minister Andrus Ansip’s Reform Party along with their coalition partners from the Centre Party are ahead in the polls, whereas all indications are that the third government party, the so-called People’s Union will fall below the 5 % treshold. The same fate seems likely also for the Social Democrat Party. The new Pro Patria and Res Publica Union is at the moment fighting with the Greens (not represented in the present Estonian Parliament) for third place.
In Finland national elections are set for 18 March, with IDU member Kansallinen Kokoomus (National Coalition Party) challenging the incumbent Social Democrats and Centrists. The largest one of the three after the election will be in a key position to determine which partners to bring along in a new government. After scoring 18.5 pct in the last national elections in 2003, passed by both the Social Democrats and Centrists, Kansallinen Kokoomus has narrowed the margin somewhat – six weeks before the elections scoring around 20 pct in the polls, with the Social Democrats and Centrists neck-to-neck around 23-24 pct of the votes. However, the campaign has just started and a lot will happen before Election Day (although voter patterns in Finland tend to be remarkably stable).
9. Putin – flexing muscles in Munich
Last Sunday’s belligerent and Cold War-threatening speech by Russian president Vladimir Putin at the prestigious Munich European security conference has been met by raised eyebrows in a number of capitals, with good reason. It is unclear what Mr Putin had hoped to achieve.
Many observers have described his choice of words as a sign of Kremlin’s new assertiveness. It certainly may also be seen as consistent with a pattern more and more evident: As enormous oil and gas revenues give Russia more financial muscle, Kremlin thinks that Russia can afford to be less than diplomatic. Having already demonstrated the will to use the supply of energy as a weapon against disobedient neighbours, Kremlin has showed remarkably little concern for the legitimate concerns of Russia’s neighbours and for the wider repercussions for European energy security.
It is also worth noting that Putin chose to rewrap his remarks in old Soviet – and immediate post-Soviet – rhetoric against “NATO expansion”, and attacked the NGOs and human rights groups involved in the struggle for democracy and the rule of law in former Soviet republics. It is obvious that Putin strongly dislikes the fact that several former Soviet satellites in democratic elections and through “orange revolutions” have chosen a path not quite in line with Putin and Kremlin’s wishes.
Combined with this increased “assertiveness” we also see a Russia under Putin quickly rebuilding his country’s military capabilities. There are increasing reasons to ask: For what purpose? Along with Putin’s increasingly bullish tone of voice this has led to more frequently asked questions amongst Russia’s neighbours. The latest in a long line of observers and institutes to raise concerns is the Norwegian Institute of Defense Studies (FFI) that in a very recent report describes Russia as again posing a military threat to its neighbours with respect to limited military actions.
In Munich US Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave an admirably measured response to President Putin’s attack on the US the day before, responding with humour: “As an old Cold Warrior, one of yesterday’s speeches almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time,” Gates said, pausing for effect before adding, “Almost!”
10. Taiwan: KMT-leader resigns
Ma Ying-jeou, the leader of the Kuomintang, Taiwan's main opposition party and an IDU member, today announced that he resigned from his position as KMT Party Leader following a formal indictment on charges of corruption. The KMT-leader – a highly respected former Minister of Justice and presently the Mayor of Taipei – resigned shortly after the charges were announced, vowing to clear his name and declaring he would run in the 2008 presidential election.
The KMT-leader’s resignation comes at the same time as Taiwan's current President, Chen Shui-bian of the ruling DPP, is heavily embroiled in legal action over a number of financial scandals involving former aides and family members.
11. New IDU website
The secretariat is at present busy preparing for the launch of IDU’s new website in early March. The web address will be the same as before – www.idu.org - but users may experience that the pages become unavailable for a few days during the process of transfer to new servers.
New to the website will be keynote speeches of leaders of IDU parties. I would be grateful if member parties would keep this in mind and send me from time to time relevant speeches (in English), either as a link to your websites or in Word- or PDF-format.
With best wishes,
Eirik Moen
IDU Secretary General